Minggu, 23 Oktober 2011

Markets Are Consistently Inconsistent



The uncertain stock market in recent weeks has provided no consistency for investors.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (composed of thirty blue-chip stocks) has swung up, then down, then up again for 10 consecutive days, the longest streak since May 2009.  The DJIA is not simply the actual average of the prices of component stocks, but rather the sum of the stocks divided by a divisor.  The divisor changes whenever one of the component stocks has a stock split or issues a stock dividend.  The DJIA had been stagnant between 10700 and 11700 for nearly two months.

The bouts with volatility have resulted in a net gain of 6.2% since October 6, but such gains are often followed by declines in the following three months.  The last time the DJIA experienced such volatility was in the middle of 2009, when it recorded 11 straight days of reversals. 

The S&P 500 has recorded 62 consecutive days in which it has swung by 1% or more during intraday trading.  While the total return on the S&P 500 for the year is -1.8%, the index’s return would be 16% if the three worst days were dropped and -13% if the best three days were eliminated. 

-1450 Points--The DJIA’s trading range since August 9
-10--Number of days the DJIA has closed up, then down, then up, partly caused by uneasiness surrounding European debt
-30--The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index has closed above this level every day but one for 11 weeks.  This index is a popular measure for the volatility of S&P index options. 

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